Recent polling averages show Democratic challenger Mary Peltola leading incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan by roughly 2 points in the Senate race, while Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins holds a 7- to 8-point edge over Republican Bernadette Wilson in the open governor contest. These consistent margins across late-October surveys have driven trader consensus toward a Democratic sweep at 71.5 percent, reflecting correlated voter preferences in a state with ranked-choice voting and an open gubernatorial seat. The fragmented Republican field in the governor race and Peltola’s cross-aisle appeal have limited Republican comeback scenarios, keeping split outcomes such as a Republican Senate hold paired with a Democratic governor win at just 20.5 percent. No major late-breaking developments have altered the polling trajectory heading into the November 3 election.