The two-thirds Senate majority required for impeachment, combined with no historical precedent for removing a Supreme Federal Court justice, sustains the strong trader consensus against Alexandre de Moraes departing the bench. Right-wing gains in the October 2026 legislative elections have increased pressure and generated dozens of petitions, yet Senate leadership has delayed proceedings amid internal divisions. Lula’s reelection provides additional institutional backing, while the court has managed related inquiries through procedural steps such as reassigning probes and postponing decisions. Moraes continues issuing orders in ongoing cases, and any shift would require coordinated action across branches unlikely before the new Senate convenes in 2027.