Ongoing Houthi restrictions on Saudi-linked shipping since the July 2026 blockade, combined with attacks and territorial gains near the strait, have sustained suppressed transit volumes through Bab el-Mandeb. Recent data show 28-day averages of 28.3 vessels per day through October 25, with daily figures ranging 21–36 and monthly means near 28.1, reflecting cautious rerouting by tankers and partial recovery in containership activity amid persistent security risks. These levels position the 25–29 range as the dominant market-implied outcome at 73.5%, as trader consensus prices in the stabilized but constrained flow rather than a return to pre-crisis norms or sharper declines.