Persistent energy price shocks from Middle East tensions have pushed UK CPI inflation to 3.5% in September 2026, well above the 2% target and prompting the Bank of England’s MPC to adopt a more hawkish stance ahead of the November 5 meeting. Markets price a near-certain 25 basis point hike at that decision, lifting Bank Rate from 3.75%, with forward curves implying further tightening through 2027 as traders incorporate sustained upside inflation risks and limited second-round effects so far. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects official communications and OIS-implied probabilities exceeding 94%. Tail risks that could still alter the outcome include rapid de-escalation of geopolitical pressures easing energy costs or weaker-than-expected labor and growth data shifting the MPC toward a hold.