Strong growth momentum and inflation remaining above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target have positioned a 25-basis-point rate hike as the dominant outcome for the November 26 meeting, with market-implied odds at 71.5%. After consecutive 25-basis-point increases in July and August that lifted the policy rate to 3%, the central bank opted for a hawkish pause in October to evaluate prior tightening effects amid robust exports, investment, and Q3 GDP outperformance. September CPI at 2.9% year-over-year and core inflation at 2.8% still exceed the target, while external factors such as the Federal Reserve’s recent hold and Middle East tensions add caution. Traders price in limited scope for larger moves or cuts given these dynamics, with October inflation and growth data serving as the key near-term catalysts.