Banco de México’s November 5 policy decision carries an 86% implied probability of no change at the 6.50% overnight rate, reflecting broad analyst consensus that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. October biweekly data showed headline inflation rising to 3.62% year-over-year and core at 3.78%, above expectations and reversing recent disinflation momentum, while GDP growth forecasts hover near 1.4% for 2026. Minutes from the prior meeting revealed three members open to easing, supporting the modest 12.8% odds of a 25 basis point cut, yet recent price prints and alignment with the Federal Reserve’s restrictive stance have reinforced expectations for a hold. Traders price in data dependence ahead of the next inflation release and any peso volatility.