Recent polls from the Public Policy Institute of California and UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies show Proposition 40, the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires, trailing with 42-46% support among likely voters and 50-52% opposed as Election Day approaches. Support has slipped from narrow leads earlier in the cycle amid a record opposition campaign that has raised and spent over $300 million, primarily from tech billionaires funding counter-measures in Propositions 41 and 42. Those measures would impose spending limits, audits, and restrictions that could nullify the wealth tax even if it receives a majority. Governor Gavin Newsom and other Democrats have opposed the initiative, citing risks of capital flight, while union backers have struggled to convert general anti-wealth sentiment into firm votes. These factors align with trader consensus that the measure is unlikely to pass.