Andrey Gyurov secured a commanding lead in the first-round overseas vote on October 25, capturing roughly 46 percent of ballots from Bulgarians abroad compared to Iliana Iotova’s 23 percent, with the remainder split among other tickets. This margin, consistent across major expatriate communities in Western Europe, underpins trader consensus that Gyurov will finish first among diaspora voters in the November 1 runoff. Overseas electorates have historically shown stable preferences between rounds, and Gyurov’s results in key locations such as the Netherlands and Belgium exceeded 57 percent. While turnout fluctuations or unforeseen developments could narrow the gap, the scale of the initial advantage leaves limited scope for reversal absent a sharp shift in expatriate participation or messaging.