Record low turnout of 22.98% in Bulgaria’s October 25 first round, the lowest in modern history, reflected widespread voter apathy, distrust in institutions, and limited mobilization after several major parties declined to field candidates. The November 1 runoff between acting President Iliana Iotova and Andrey Gyurov has featured a compressed campaign ending in election silence on October 31, with limited time for parties to activate supporters. Traders assign the highest probability to 24%+ turnout because the binary contest and final outcome may draw marginally higher participation than the fragmented first round, though structural factors such as the largely ceremonial presidency and ongoing disillusionment continue to constrain broader engagement. Historical runoff patterns and the absence of new catalysts support this consensus range over lower brackets.