Iliana Iotova holds a commanding lead in Bulgaria’s presidential runoff due to her position as acting president, backing from the ruling Progressive Bulgaria party and allied left-wing groups, and consistent first-round performance that positioned her for the November 1 contest against Andrey Gyurov. Exit polls from multiple agencies on election day projected her securing 50.7–52.5% of the vote against Gyurov’s 43.4–44.7%, reflecting voter preferences amid low turnout of roughly 27–29% and differences over foreign policy alignment. The implied probability in trader consensus aligns with these results and the limited remaining counting window. Factors that could still alter the outcome include final official tallies revealing unexpected shifts, procedural disputes over ballots, or turnout patterns that materially change the margin before certification.