China’s 2026 GDP growth has converged around the 4.0–5.0% range amid Q3 expansion of 4.5%, supported by robust exports in high-tech manufacturing, electric vehicles, and AI-related goods that have offset persistent weakness in domestic consumption and a prolonged property-sector downturn. Official targets of 4.5–5% remain within reach following modest fiscal measures, including interest-rate adjustments, mortgage subsidies, and allocation of unused local-government debt quotas. IMF and Reuters polls project full-year outcomes near 4.5%, with external demand providing the primary lift while structural headwinds limit broader momentum. Scenarios that could shift probabilities include sharper escalation in trade frictions, accelerated property-sector deterioration, or unexpectedly weak Q4 industrial output and retail sales.