The Cuban government under President Miguel Díaz-Canel has maintained institutional control amid intensified U.S. sanctions, fuel restrictions, and diplomatic pressure from the Trump administration, including public calls for internal defections. Despite severe economic contraction, widespread blackouts, and record emigration exceeding two million people since 2022, no mass uprising, leadership fracture, or negotiated transition has materialized in the past month. Official Cuban statements and legislative activity continue without interruption, while potential succession figures from the Castro network remain aligned with the existing structure. Traders assign a 91.5% probability to the regime surviving 2026 because these factors show continuity rather than imminent collapse, even as external leverage and domestic hardship create ongoing uncertainty through year-end.