The minority Jetten cabinet, formed after the October 2025 snap election, faces acute pressure from declining polls and opposition demands on the 2027 budget and tax plan, yet remains engaged in cross-party negotiations to secure parliamentary majorities without collapse. With the D66-VVD-CDA coalition holding only 66 seats and needing external support for votes scheduled in November, recent joint proposals from JA21, BBB, and SGP on nitrogen, asylum, and related issues have heightened tensions but produced no formal dissolution steps or snap-election call by late October 2026. Traders assign an 83.9% probability to “No” dissolution this year because the new parliament’s term extends into 2030 absent a severe cabinet or House conflict, and parties continue procedural efforts to pass legislation rather than dissolve.