The tight bunching among the top five probabilities reflects how high altitude at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez reduces air density, equalizing power-unit output and aero efficiency while amplifying the value of cornering grip and tire management. Ferrari’s strong practice pace and front-row lockout with Hamilton on pole and Leclerc third position the Scuderia drivers for late-race soft-tire runs, yet Mercedes’ championship-leading form with Antonelli and Russell keeps both in contention. Verstappen’s qualifying speed despite the grid drop and Tsunoda’s Racing Bulls package further compress the field, as one-stop strategies and final-lap pushes remain viable for any of the frontrunners.