Lewis Hamilton leads the Mexican Grand Prix winner market at 34.5% after securing pole position for Ferrari in qualifying, his first for the team and 105th career pole, edging George Russell by 0.009 seconds with strong SF-26 pace on the high-altitude Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez layout. Charles Leclerc sits second at 21.5% following consistent recent podiums, including seconds in Singapore and Austin, and a front-row start alongside his teammate. George Russell and Kimi Antonelli hold 15.7% and 15.0% respectively as Mercedes drivers with Russell on the front row and Antonelli starting fourth while positioned to potentially clinch the drivers’ title. Max Verstappen trails at 15.5% after a one-place grid penalty drops him to fifth despite competitive qualifying pace. These probabilities reflect the tight front-row battle, Ferrari’s qualifying edge, and Antonelli’s championship buffer heading into the 71-lap race.