Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026, including strikes on military targets near Kharg Island and repeated attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, have kept global energy markets volatile, with Brent crude recently settling near $113–117 per barrel amid sharply reduced flows through the strait. Kharg remains Iran’s primary crude export terminal under Tehrán’s control despite historical Iraqi strikes and recent naval blockades, while Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands underpin Iranian oversight of Hormuz traffic that normally carries about one-fifth of world oil and LNG. Market-implied odds price a low probability of any island changing hands, reflecting sustained Iranian naval presence, Qatari-Omani mediation on shipping routes, and limited bypass capacity that continues to support elevated energy prices. Key near-term catalysts include potential post-midterm US actions, sanctions relief tied to strait access, and data on weekly export volumes from firms like Kpler.