Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market underpin the 70.5% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting. October employment data showed 182,000 jobs added with average hourly earnings rising 4.1% year-over-year, while recent PCE and CPI readings left headline inflation near 3.6–3.7%. The October 28 FOMC statement maintained the 3.75–4.00% target range by a 10–2 vote, citing elevated inflation and the need for additional information, with two governors dissenting in favor of an immediate hike. Traders are pricing the December decision against these conditions and the November CPI and employment releases that precede the December 8–9 meeting.