Redistricting by Florida Republicans expanded the district to include more conservative rural counties and voters who backed Donald Trump by roughly 18 points in 2024, shifting the partisan baseline and placing incumbent Darren Soto at a structural disadvantage despite his five prior terms. Dan Green, a Navy Reserve veteran and former Trump administration Defense official, benefits from this map change and unified GOP support after winning a crowded primary. Forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican, though Soto maintains stronger individual fundraising and one internal poll showed a tie. Traders' 66.5 percent probability for Green reflects the altered electoral math and limited remaining time before the November 3 vote, tempered by Soto's name recognition and the possibility of higher Democratic turnout in suburban pockets.