Byron Donalds maintains a polling and fundraising edge in Florida’s open gubernatorial contest, reflecting the state’s Republican registration advantage and consistent GOP performance in recent statewide races. Donalds secured the nomination with strong backing from President Trump in a crowded August primary and has raised over $140 million, enabling broad outreach on affordability, taxes, and immigration. David Jolly, the Democratic nominee and former Republican congressman, has gained traction with independents and some crossover support on issues like insurance costs and data centers but trails in most late-October surveys by 2–6 points. With Election Day on November 3, early voting underway, and limited undecided voters remaining, traders assign Donalds a 63.5% implied probability based on these structural and resource factors.