Byron Donalds holds a polling edge of roughly four to five points over David Jolly in the final surveys before the November 3 election, a margin that aligns with Florida’s Republican tilt in recent statewide contests and the party’s unbroken gubernatorial wins since 1998. Donalds secured the GOP nomination comfortably in the August primary after strong fundraising and endorsements, including from President Trump, while Jolly, a former Republican who switched parties, consolidated Democratic support but trails among key suburban and older voter blocs. Late-October polls from Siena/NYT, Stetson, and others show the race stable within the margin of error, with Donalds favored on property insurance and economic issues. Prediction-market pricing reflects this modest but persistent Republican advantage in a state where structural factors continue to shape outcomes.