Recent polling averages place Marine Le Pen first in the April 2027 first round at around 34%, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon holding second near 17% amid stable far-left support. Centrist fragmentation between Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal has accelerated Philippe’s recent decline, opening space for Raphaël Glucksmann and David Lisnard while keeping third place contested. October protests and Le Pen’s formal campaign launch have reinforced extremes without shifting the middle-order battle. Traders price Mélenchon at 31.5% for third and Philippe at 21.5% because small swings in centrist turnout or left consolidation could reorder the positions behind the top two. Upcoming candidate declarations and further polling will test whether any single contender consolidates the fragmented moderate vote before the April deadline.