The tight polling average between incumbent Republican Rich McCormick and Democrat Tony Kozycki, hovering near a statistical dead heat in the most recent surveys, drives trader consensus on a narrow Republican margin of victory in Georgia’s 7th district. The R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index district north of Atlanta features suburban voters responsive to turnout and national midterm dynamics, with Kozycki advancing from the Democratic primary runoff to challenge the incumbent’s 2024 performance. Recent late-cycle surveys showing leads swapping within the margin of error underscore uncertainty around early voting patterns and ballot composition, keeping probabilities for 5-10 point or smaller Republican edges elevated while capping longer-shot outcomes.