Trader consensus places the GOP share of the Black vote near 8–11% for the 2026 midterms, with the two leading buckets nearly even. This distribution aligns with long-term historical averages and recent polling aggregates showing limited movement among Black voters despite targeted outreach on economic issues, school choice, and criminal justice. Midterm dynamics, including candidate recruitment in key districts and turnout patterns in urban areas, keep the range tight. Resolution depends on certified vote totals after November 2026, and any late polling shifts or changes in voter mobilization could separate the top outcomes. The market reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of these structural and campaign factors rather than a forecast.