Recent energy price surges, particularly gasoline, drove the 2026 CPI peak of 4.2% year-over-year in May, while persistent shelter costs kept core inflation elevated near 2.6-3.3% through September and November releases. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.75-4.00% in October amid "elevated" inflation, with markets pricing limited additional hikes and two dissents favoring tightening. Trader consensus on the peak reflects contained core trends excluding shelter and energy, alongside resilient growth and stable labor data, though October and December CPI prints due in November and January could test whether readings exceed 4% again before year-end.