Israel has conducted strikes in four countries during 2026—primarily Iran (beginning with major joint operations on February 28 targeting leadership and infrastructure), Lebanon (escalating in March with sustained airstrikes and ground actions against Hezbollah), Syria (targeted strikes on military sites), and Yemen (operations against Houthi positions). These align with the established pattern of Israeli responses to Iranian-backed proxies and direct threats. Ongoing low-intensity activity continues in Lebanon and Gaza into November, while recent reports highlight Israeli preparations for possible renewed action against Iran after the U.S. midterms, though no decision has been reached and diplomatic channels remain active. With only December remaining and no verified expansion to additional sovereign states such as Iraq, trader pricing reflects the low probability of a fifth country entering the tally before year-end.