The redrawn Alabama congressional map, upheld by the Supreme Court for the 2026 cycle, creates one reliably Democratic district in the 7th while shifting the 2nd into competitive territory after prior court-ordered changes had briefly enabled two Democratic wins. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures faces Republican Rhett Marques in the 2nd, with recent forecasts showing a narrow GOP edge or toss-up status amid the national environment and local turnout dynamics. The remaining five districts stay solidly Republican. These structural and campaign factors explain trader consensus clustering on one or two Democratic seats, with limited probability assigned to zero or three-plus outcomes given the map's design and Alabama's partisan baseline.