SpaceX has completed 121–123 orbital launches through late October 2026, primarily Falcon 9 Starlink missions supported by high booster reuse rates exceeding 20 flights per vehicle. This pace trails the 170 launches recorded in 2025, reflecting fewer Starship orbital attempts to date—only a handful of V3 test flights—and occasional range or weather constraints at Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral. With roughly 60 days remaining, sustained weekly cadence of government and constellation payloads positions the 140–159 bucket as the market-implied consensus at 71.5 percent, while lower ranges capture downside from any further slowdowns ahead of year-end.