Iran's continued linkage of any final Iran-Oman Hormuz transit framework to prior U.S. fulfillment of Islamabad MoU commitments, including lifting the naval blockade of Iranian ports and easing sanctions, remains the dominant factor shaping the 71% trader consensus on "No." Bilateral talks between Tehran and Muscat on temporary shipping lanes, mine clearance, and route coordinates have advanced into final stages as of early November 2026, yet Iranian officials have repeatedly conditioned implementation or reopening on Washington meeting those preconditions first. Recent diplomatic exchanges show no breakthrough on blockade relief, while maritime incidents and enforcement actions sustain the status quo. This dynamic reinforces market expectations that the agreement will not precede any blockade lift within the resolution window.