Bank of Japan policy normalization drives the widest dispersion in end-2026 10-year JGB yield odds, with the 2.8-3.0% band leading at 34.9% as markets price gradual further tightening after the October 30 hold at 1.25%. The BOJ declared underlying CPI inflation at its 2% target for the first time since 2013, upgraded its fiscal 2027 core forecast to 2.6%, and signaled vigilance against overshoot risks from energy prices, yen weakness, and AI-driven demand. Current yields near 2.8% reflect this path alongside safe-haven flows and reduced quantitative tightening, while the December meeting remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities between the 2.6-2.8% and 3.0%+ ranges depending on the pace of subsequent 25-basis-point adjustments.