Recent polling has kept the Keelung mayoral race tight ahead of the November 28 vote, with a late-October Mirror Media survey showing DPP candidate Tung Tzu-wei edging KMT incumbent Hsieh Kuo-liang 37% to 36.3% overall and widening the lead among likely voters. Over half of respondents expressed a preference for new leadership, reflecting voter fatigue with the incumbent after four years in office. Hsieh’s incumbency, governance record, and stronger performance in KMT-commissioned surveys continue to underpin trader consensus favoring him at 57.5% implied probability versus Tung’s 40.5%. The presence of a minor independent candidate adds limited fragmentation. Late-campaign events such as turnout mobilization in key districts, further polling releases, or coordinated party efforts could still widen the gap before election day.