President Lee Jae-myung’s constitutional term runs through June 2030 with no active impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or legislative moves to shorten it, anchoring trader expectations that he will remain in office through 2026. Recent weeks show continued engagement in diplomacy, including a summit with the German chancellor, memorial events on the Itaewon disaster, and policy statements on trade and safety reforms, while approval ratings fluctuate between the high 30s and mid-40s amid economic and housing concerns but without triggering institutional challenges. Opposition criticism and isolated investigations into nomination disputes have not produced the parliamentary thresholds or public momentum needed for removal. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sharp escalation in North Korea tensions, a major corruption ruling, or sudden coalition fractures in the National Assembly.