**Trader consensus clusters around 650,000–750,000 first-round ballots in Maine’s November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate contest because early-voting data and historical midterm patterns point to moderate overall participation in a closely contested race.** Nearly 288,000 absentee and in-person early ballots had been cast by late October—up sharply from comparable points in 2022—yet Maine’s large senior population and reports of campaign fatigue limit upside. Democratic early voters outpace Republicans, consistent with polling showing Jackson leading Collins by roughly 2–4 points among likely voters. Forecasts project total first-round votes near 740,000, placing the two leading brackets in near parity. A stronger-than-expected Election Day surge among older or independent voters or unusually high unaffiliated turnout could shift the outcome into the 750,000+ range, while lower mobilization on either side would favor the sub-700,000 brackets.