Greg Murphy holds a narrow edge in the NC-03 House race as the Republican incumbent facing Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. on November 3. Mid-decade redistricting shifted some coastal areas out of the district and added inland counties, reducing its Republican tilt while leaving a Trump +14 lean from 2024. Murphy’s fundraising dominance—roughly $2.4 million cash on hand versus Smith’s $81,000—supports heavier advertising and ground operations. Smith has drawn outside Democratic spending and benefited from stronger early Democratic turnout, prompting forecasters to move the seat from Safe to Likely Republican. Limited polling shows a tight contest, and the two-day window before Election Day leaves room for late shifts in turnout or voter sentiment on economic and health-care issues.