Marine Le Pen leads trader consensus at 40.3% for the 2027 French presidential election, driven by her consistent first-round polling edge of 33-36% amid voter priorities on immigration, border security, and law-and-order issues following October protests. Recent centrist fragmentation, including rivalry between Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal plus limited gains for Bruno Retailleau, has fragmented moderate support and elevated the implied probability of a Le Pen-Mélenchon runoff. Mélenchon holds steady near 17% in aggregates, while David Lisnard and Philippe trail in the mid-teens as right-leaning and center-right alternatives. Le Pen opened her campaign in late October with pledges on energy costs and national identity, reinforcing her frontrunner status ahead of the April first round, though historical runoff dynamics and potential late shifts in turnout remain key variables priced into current odds.