New Democracy maintains a commanding lead in recent opinion polls for Greece’s next parliamentary election, expected by summer 2027, with roughly 30 percent support—about 14 points ahead of the nearest rival, ELAS. This positioning reflects the party’s incumbency advantage under Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, consistent voter preference for the governing party amid economic concerns, and a fragmented opposition that includes PASOK-KINAL, KKE, and smaller groups struggling to consolidate. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns overwhelming probability to an ND victory, consistent with historical patterns where the leading party rarely loses outright. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a sharp economic downturn, major scandal, or unexpected opposition merger that narrows the gap before the vote.