Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's lead candidate, holds the strongest position in the market following the September 2026 Landtag election, where the party secured 43.8% of the vote and 39 of 83 seats. The December vote for Ministerpräsident requires an absolute majority in the first two rounds and a simple majority of votes cast in the third. Siegmund has stated he will stand only in the initial round, amid ongoing talks with other factions and individual lawmakers. The five BSW deputies have signaled possible abstentions in later rounds, which could enable a simple majority if the CDU exits the chamber as planned. Other named candidates, including current CDU figures and BSW representatives, register minimal trader support due to the AfD's seat plurality and procedural dynamics.