The NJ-7 race between incumbent Republican Thomas Kean Jr. and Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett stays tightly matched because recent polls show Bennett holding a narrow 4- to 5-point edge while early voting data reveals a Democratic advance-ballot lead exceeding 24,000 votes that has not produced separation. Bennett’s fundraising advantage, exceeding $8 million raised versus Kean’s $6 million, and her positioning as a moderate healthcare executive contrast with Kean’s incumbency and name recognition in a district that leaned slightly Republican in 2024. Forecasters rate the seat lean or likely Democratic, yet limited general-election polling, potential late Republican turnout gains, and the November 3 resolution window keep trader consensus focused on modest Democratic margins between 3 and 12 points rather than a blowout.