The breakout commercial and critical success of Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s “You Can See Everything,” an A24 release about Elizabeth Holmes that opened to $15 million and earned near-perfect reviews, has become the dominant catalyst shifting trader consensus toward its likely nomination. Academy screenings and A24’s aggressive multi-category campaign, including Best Picture, have amplified its visibility ahead of the documentary branch’s shortlist process. Other frontrunners such as “Naza,” “Once Upon a Time in Harlem,” “Musk,” Ava DuVernay’s “14th,” and “Rehearsals for a Revolution” maintain strong precursor positioning from festival circuits. Key upcoming tests include the Critics’ Choice Documentary Awards on November 8, IDFA screenings in mid-November, and the December shortlist voting, all of which will clarify momentum before final nominations in January.