Recent polling in the Pennsylvania 10th congressional district shows a tight rematch between incumbent Republican Scott Perry and Democrat Janelle Stelson, with averages placing Stelson ahead by roughly two points among likely voters. The Siena/New York Times survey from mid-to-late October recorded a statistical tie at 48 percent each, while other recent surveys from Susquehanna and RedBox Research showed Stelson leads of three points. This positioning reflects the district’s competitive fundamentals, Perry’s narrow 2024 victory, and voter concerns over costs and national conditions ahead of the November 3 election. Trader probabilities cluster around low-single-digit Democratic margins because turnout among swing voters and late shifts on economic issues remain decisive factors that could still produce a Republican hold or modest Democratic flip.