The tight pricing between Chou Chun-mi at 38.5% and Su Ching-chuan at 12% reflects a rematch of their 2022 contest in a DPP-leaning county where the incumbent prevailed by roughly 2.5 points. Ballot numbers drawn on October 23 set Su first and Chou second ahead of the November 28 vote, while both candidates opened campaign headquarters in mid-October with platforms centered on agriculture, tourism, and infrastructure. Su’s June indictment in the Antai Hospital fire case and his October 26 remarks questioning Chou’s experience with child-rearing have drawn criticism without materially shifting trader consensus. Incumbency advantages and the absence of viable third-party entrants continue to anchor the market’s assessment of the two-candidate dynamic.