The 2026 NFL season rushing touchdowns market reflects a wide-open race through late October, with Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs tied for the highest implied probability at 22.5% each per trader consensus. Josh Allen sits at 16%, followed by a cluster of running backs including Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, and Bucky Irving in the low teens. This tight bunching stems from balanced early-season usage across multiple offenses, where goal-line carries, offensive line play, and red-zone efficiency have produced comparable touchdown outputs without a clear frontrunner emerging. Factors such as workload management, defensive adjustments, and occasional injury recoveries continue to level the field, consistent with historical patterns where mid-season form shifts can rapidly alter standings in a parity-driven league.