**Patriots’ 24-19 victory over the Dolphins on November 1 leaves the season series hinging on the Week 18 rematch at Gillette Stadium.** Miami’s 1-6 record, depleted roster after losing key offensive contributors, and reliance on Malik Willis at quarterback make a Dolphins sweep nearly impossible, reflected in the near-zero implied probability. New England’s improved 5-3 standing and Drake Maye’s recent production strengthen their position, yet the market assigns the highest probability to a split, consistent with historical Week 18 dynamics where playoff implications or rest can influence outcomes. Trader pricing treats the late-season home matchup as closely contested despite the recent result and divisional standings.