Recent polling averages project the PSOE at 26-27% support ahead of the 29 November snap election, translating to roughly 105-115 seats under the D'Hondt system, amid a PP lead of about five points and rising Vox support. The narrow spread in trader prices across the 102-119 seat bands reflects uncertainty over left-bloc cohesion after the Sumar split and housing protests, variable regional turnout, and whether PSOE mobilization on cost-of-living measures can offset national trends. PP-Vox combinations consistently exceed the 176-seat majority threshold in most simulations, while PSOE recovery depends on strong performance in urban and Catalan districts. Campaign developments through late November, including televised debates and final housing policy messaging, remain the main variables that could shift the outcome within the current market range.