Recent polling and finalized candidate lists for the November 29 general election show the Partido Popular maintaining an edge in Santa Cruz de Tenerife through Gustavo González de Vega’s candidacy, bolstered by the PP-Vox Senate alliance that consolidates right-leaning votes. PSOE head José Antonio Valbuena emphasizes pensions, minimum wages, and education funding, yet surveys indicate the party trailing amid broader national shifts. Coalición Canaria’s Cristina Valido-led list with Primero Canarias positions regional nationalists as potential coalition kingmakers, while Vox’s independent Senate placements and smaller parties fragment the field. This multi-candidate contest for seven seats, with vote shares projected near 31% PP and 26% PSOE, sustains tight implied probabilities as traders weigh turnout, regional budget priorities, and last-minute national momentum before election day.