Johnny Chiang holds an 84% implied probability in the Taichung mayoral race due to his KMT nomination victory in the March primary over Yang Chiung-ying, unified party backing from outgoing two-term mayor Lu Shiow-yen’s network, and consistent polling leads over DPP legislator Ho Hsin-chun. Recent October surveys, including an AI simulation showing Chiang at 46% to Ho’s 35%, reflect his advantages in northern districts, older voters, and policy emphasis on transportation hubs, industrial upgrades, and an AI-assisted public safety network. Ho’s platform on bus reforms and social welfare has narrowed gaps in some youth and southern areas but has not closed the overall margin. Minor candidates such as Hong Li-hua register negligible support, while the November 28 vote timing and term-limit dynamics reinforce trader consensus around the KMT frontrunner.