Recent polling averages show Republican Gov. Greg Abbott holding a narrow 3-point edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa while Democrat James Talarico leads or ties Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race by roughly 2 points, producing a competitive environment that favors split-ticket outcomes. Low rates of ticket-splitting and high early-voting participation have kept both contests within the margin of error across multiple surveys released in the final week, sustaining trader emphasis on the Reps-win-governor, Dems-win-Senate combination at 42 percent. With Election Day two days away, final turnout differentials among independents and Hispanic voters, along with any late shifts in favorability ratings, remain the primary variables that could widen margins and alter the current implied probabilities reflected in the market.