Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain president through the end of 2026, reflecting broad consensus on institutional barriers to early removal. Republican majorities in Congress make impeachment and conviction unlikely absent a major shift in party alignment, while invocation of the 25th Amendment requires coordinated action by the vice president and cabinet that has no recent precedent. Historical base rates for presidential removal show such events as rare within the first two years of a term. Realistic scenarios that could still move the market include a sudden health crisis forcing resignation, a large-scale scandal prompting voluntary departure, or an unforeseen escalation in domestic or foreign events that alters congressional dynamics before the 2027 threshold.