Tshisekedi’s recent inauguration for a second five-year term, confirmed by the Constitutional Court after his December 2025 election victory with over 73 percent of the vote, anchors trader expectations that he will remain in office through the end of 2026. His administration controls national institutions, the armed forces, and key political levers, while recent polling shows strong domestic support. Ongoing eastern conflict and the October 2026 announcement that former president Joseph Kabila has joined a rebel coalition seeking to remove him introduce uncertainty, yet these forces remain regionally contained and have not disrupted central authority or triggered an immediate leadership transition. The 95 percent implied probability for “No” reflects the constitutional timeline ending in 2028 and the absence of any scheduled election or removal mechanism before December 31, 2026. Late-stage developments such as a successful nationwide military challenge, abrupt health-related incapacity, or negotiated early exit could still shift the outcome, though none appear imminent based on current institutional and security realities.