Tusk’s Civic Coalition-led government retains a working parliamentary majority into late 2026, with no successful no-confidence motion or coalition collapse in sight despite internal tensions and a minor partner resignation. The ongoing standoff with President Karol Nawrocki over Constitutional Tribunal appointments and judicial reforms has escalated in recent weeks, yet Tusk has advanced procedural changes without facing removal threats. Polling shows mixed approval but no surge in support for opposition forces capable of forcing an early exit. With the next parliamentary election scheduled for 2027, traders view the prime minister’s position as secure through December, reflecting the absence of immediate institutional or electoral triggers that could alter the outcome.