The US naval blockade on Iranian ports and vessels, reinstated in July 2026 following the collapse of an earlier memorandum, continues to restrict Iranian crude loadings and exports through the Strait of Hormuz, with CENTCOM reporting substantial revenue losses for Tehran. Trader consensus reflects sustained enforcement through sanctions on the shadow fleet and proxy networks, alongside diplomatic efforts mediated by Qatar over asset releases and sanctions relief. No qualifying public US announcement has ended or suspended the measures as of early November 2026, even as indirect talks advance and midterms approach. Markets price low near-term probabilities for resolution due to the blockade's ongoing economic impact and absence of verified breakthroughs, while longer horizons through early 2027 show higher implied chances tied to potential negotiated outcomes.