The October 9 Trump-Putin agreement and Treasury’s OFAC General License 135 authorizing Russian-origin diesel transactions, including U.S. imports, through April 7, 2027, form the central driver of market pricing. This policy shift collides with the 2022 Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act’s statutory prohibition, creating ongoing legal exposure for buyers and customs risks that have left three loaded tankers—Agioi Fanendes (New York, ~Nov. 7), Leruo, and Talisman—without confirmed purchasers as of late October. Russia’s refinery outages and extended export quotas limit available volumes, while the U.S. remains a net diesel exporter with ample domestic supply. Congressional opposition and the Nov. 3 midterms add near-term uncertainty, with resolution hinging on actual discharge before key deadlines.